India — the world’s big new workforce

August 17th, 2010 No comments »

A new report highlighted by The Economist, reports that 3 out of 10 new workers in the next decade will be in India.  That’s right, India.  Not China.  By 2020, India will add 110M new workers.

A few stats on India’s worker landscape:

  • Expect that about 1/3 of those people will work in the services sector (think: IT outsourcing and the like)
  • India’s manufacturing sector has grown at 8% per year over the past decade … last year surpassing agriculture sector in terms of GDP with 16.1% employing about 12% of population
  • Labor to capital ratios in many areas including clothing, jewellery and toymaking have halved in the last decade … that is, worker productivity has dramatically increased
  • India’s factories skew to being small or very large (see chart) due to more then 200 federal and state labour laws.  Most damaging is the Industrial Disputes Act which requires the government’s permission for company’s with > 100 employees before letting anyone go.
  • Labour-intensive businesses in states with more flexible labor laws grew at 7% per year (for the last 20 years) vs. 3.5% per year for the same time period.

So with no major new labor law reforms in sight, the question is where will the 70M non-service sector new workers find (or make) employment?

Questions about Unitus changes

August 11th, 2010 6 comments »

I wish I had posted this closer to the announcement date, but I still think this will be helpful for people who care deeply about Unitus and microfinance/poverty alleviation…

I am a board member of Unitus, a global poverty 501c3 charity which recently announced that it is redirecting its efforts from microfinance to new areas of reducing global poverty.  This came as a shock to many people who have valued the transformative work that Unitus has done to dramatically increase access to financial services for poor families.

False and Misleading Rumors

Unfortunately, false and misleading information about this announcement have become widespread.  This is very disheartening because:
(a) The significant positive impacts Unitus has made on behalf of the global poor have been largely ignored, and
(b) Concern that Unitus’ announcement indicates that microfinance no longer requires innovative philanthropic support.

In an attempt to correct some of these misconceptions, I have re-stated some of the most common questions that I’ve been asked along with my thoughts that I shared in conversations with multiple people:

Q: What is Unitus’ mission? Vision? Approach?

Unitus’ mission is to help eliminate global poverty.  Like Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus has said, we want poverty to be something future generations can see only in museums. From the start, we have been agnostic about methods.  We are not about microcredit, profits, nonprofits, or any other methodology.  We have searched for highly leveraged ways that we might uniquely contribute to empowering millions of poor working families with the opportunity for economic self-reliance. We are strong believers in identifying and accelerating the activities and approaches that most effectively reduce poverty and empower the working poor. We see market systems and capitalism as powerful tools that can and should be harnessed to bring opportunity and sustainability and global impact.  We are committed to identifying high-impact projects with clearly defined and measurable goals.  When we determine our work is done with a particular job, we will declare that we are done, then exit and pursue other worthy projects.

Q: What did Unitus announce?

With approximately $50 billion of microfinance capital now available to more than 150 million of the world’s working poor — and a large and a growing community of philanthropic and (now primarily) commercial microfinance institutions serving this previously greatly underserved market — we feel the time is right for Unitus to seek out other transformative fields of endeavor. Accordingly, going forward Unitus will no longer initiate new microfinance partnerships. We will honor all existing obligations and commitments to existing MFI partners, then move on to new high-value activities. Consequently, Unitus will be downsizing its operations to a small team as we identify new transformative projects to reduce poverty.

Q: What project has Unitus completed?

Our first project was focused on attracting commercial capital into the microfinance sector.  When we first started on this project 10 years ago, almost all microfinance was funded by philanthropic capital.  Less than 10 percent of the working poor had access to microfinance and growth was slow due to capital constraints and lack of innovation.  Our vision was to identify entrepreneurs building the next generation of microfinance organizations in underserved and un-served markets and to support them in demonstrating the financial viability of commercial microfinance operations.  The results of our endeavors have been beyond our imagination when we started.  Our partners are now serving 12-plus million poor families, and represent some of the most innovative, efficient, fast-growing financial organizations on the planet.  And many of them are passing on those efficiencies by regularly reducing interest rates paid on microloans by the working poor to levels never seen before. A recent IDB survey reported that “profit-making MFIs (charge) lower interest rates [than non-profit MFIs].”  This is significant.

Therefore, Unitus is declaring “project accomplished” (which I think is a more accurate statement than the politically charged “mission accomplished” language.) We set out to accomplish a specific project — attracting commercial capital to the microfinance sector.  There was broad agreement amongst Unitus staff and board (although not unanimous) that we had reached our demonstration effect goal. We looked extensively at (and actually experimented in a few) other geographies where we thought our consultative approach to accelerating access to high-density microcredit might apply and we concluded that the right situations did not exist for Unitus to have further transformational impact.  Since our organization and structure was set up for this project, the board unanimously decided that the right decision was to: (a) wind down the existing microfinance accelerator organization; and (b) with a small team, begin new explorations for areas where we could start new projects that had similar transformative potential on global poverty.

Q: The announcement felt so abrupt. Why?

I think it felt abrupt because so many people care so much about Unitus and had expectations that Unitus had a long-term commitment to microfinance beyond our initial project commitment.  It also felt abrupt because Unitus announced we were downsizing our staff size not due to funding issues or staff performance issues or other more common reasons that charities reduce their expenses.  It also felt abrupt because Unitus staff members, with the board’s determination that the microfinance project was complete, were hard at work identifying new opportunities for Unitus projects. And it felt abrupt because the board chose to announce the changes soon after they were finalized, because we wanted to have sufficient resources to help impacted Unitus employees to find their next world-changing roles.

Q: Is innovative philanthropic capital still needed for microfinance?

Yes! There are many situations where there are still market failures or gaps in delivering financial services to poor families. In many cases, these will require strategically and innovatively targeted philanthropic resources to move things forward. There are also many good philanthropic microfinance organizations that have long-term commitments to improving the microfinance sector, so we believe there is greater need for our particular skills and contributions elsewhere.

Q: Will donations received before this announcement be allocated to microfinance or to new Unitus philanthropic activities?

All donations received prior to the announcement will by default be directed towards microfinance activities, including the completion of our existing microfinance commitments and the wind down of our microfinance operations.  For donors who wish for their monies to be allocated towards new Unitus philanthropic activities, we will provide a mechanism for doing this. To be clear, 100 percent of donations to Unitus are and will be used exclusively for philanthropic purposes.

Q: How much money does Unitus have remaining?

Until we finalize fulfillment of all of our existing microfinance commitments and obligations, we will not have an exact number. We are taking the approach of being generous to fulfill not only the letter, but also the spirit of our commitments wherever feasible. Also, as noted above, we still need to have conversations with donors who may want remaining portions of their donations allocated to new Unitus philanthropic activities.

Q: Will Unitus be able to properly invest donor monies with a smaller staff?

Yes. There will continue to be sufficient professional staff to effectively allocate and invest donor resources into projects approved by the Unitus board.

Q: Did Unitus time this announcement because of the upcoming public offering of SKS Microfinance?

Absolutely not. Our timing was based entirely on the factors I outlined above: our desire to make a transformative difference in other fields of poverty alleviation, and within the context of our existing microfinance commitments, to be the best possible stewards of the financial and other resources with which we have been entrusted.

Q: Why can’t Unitus talk more about its involvement with SKS Microfinance?

Under India law, Unitus is considered a “promoter” for the SKS Microfinance public offering, and is restricted from any public commentary about SKS Microfinance during the quiet period before and after the public offering.

Q: Did (or will) Unitus board members personally benefit from Unitus Equity Funds?

Absolutely not. Some Unitus board members did provide investment capital for Unitus Equity Funds (a separate commercial social venture fund setup in 2006). These investments either came through: (a) family/community foundations; or (b) personal investments with a commitment for all proceeds to be used for charitable purposes. So, 100 percent of any financial returns to board member-related investments are committed to further charitable activities.

Q: What are the new philanthropic projects/activities for Unitus 2.0?

There are many significant areas of market failure which deny the working poor the opportunity to thrive and reach their dreams and potential. Traditional international development approaches have continued to fail to deliver results. We are currently researching systems, approaches and strategies where we believe there is the potential for transformative impact to create large-scale, sustainable opportunities to reduce global poverty. We will be announcing more details soon.

Unitus has published a follow-up FAQ.

If there are additional questions in which you think a larger audience may be interested, please post in comments.

Updates:

A better measure of global poverty?

August 9th, 2010 1 comment »

Researchers at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at the University of Oxford have created a new way of measuring poverty which takes into account more factors than income.  Called the “Multidimensional Poverty Index”, it includes factors such as:

  • Does a family have a dirt or dung floor?
  • Do they have a decent toilet/latrine?
  • Must family members travel more than 30 minutes on foot to get clean water?
  • Do they live without electricity?
  • Is a family member malnourished?
  • Are all school aged children enrolled in school?

A household is counted as poor if it is deprived on over 30% of the ten indicators.

What’s interesting (see chart) is that this results in substantial differences in estimations of families living below poverty level when compared to the traditional World Bank measure of $1.25/day (adjusted for purchasing power).

For instance, under this new measure, Ethiopia has almost 90% of population in poverty vs. less than 40% under the $1.25/day measure.  While Tanzania (which does better at getting its people fed, housed and educated) actually have significantly lower estimate of poverty under this new measure.

It will be interesting to see if this new measurement catches on vs. the much easier to measure daily income metric.

Reference: The Economist

Why do we call them non-profits?

May 27th, 2010 8 comments »

I was at an interesting Seattle Social Venture Partners event tonight for a discussion on philanthropy. Doug and Maggie Walker very openly shared their journey along the path of giving their time and money towards their passions.

One of the words that seemed to keep jumping out at me tonight was the term “non-profit.”

Some of this might have been because I’m still processing the thought-provoking new book I just finished called Uncharitable by Dan Pallotta which researches the origins of why we think of and require charities to be not-for-profit organizations.  Dan discovered that the non-profit mandate is an American invention which came out of early American Puritan (Christian) doctrine. Puritans believed in the “depravity of man” and so worried that growing materialism would lead to “worldliness” and corruption. So, they instituted charity as a penance for making money.  ”So, how could you possibly make money helping the poor if helping the poor was your penance for making money?

So, today we talk about “the non-profit sector” and the predominant description and defining characteristic of charities is that they are “non-profit”.  Why do we focus on this?  Why do we focus on what they’ve “not” vs. what they “are”?

There have been attempts to refer to charities as “non-governmental organizations” (NGOs).  But again, why the “non” emphasis?

Alternatively, we describe charities as 501c3’s (based on IRS section which authorizes their tax treatment).  But, we don’t refer to attempting-to-earn-profit companies predominantly as “C Corps”, “S Corps” and other government technical descriptions, do we?

Automobiles were once called horseless carriages.  But that didn’t last too long because they were important enough to get their own defining category.

I think language matters.  By constantly referring to charities as “non-profits” or “NGOs” we are continuing to re-enforce the belief that these organizations … many of whom are seeking to solutions to the largest and most important social challenges of our generation … as 2nd class citizens or somehow not that important.

I have been as guilty as anyone of this language issue.  So, I’ve decided to take a small step and to stop using the terms “non-profit”, “not-for-profit” and “NGO” and to start experimenting with new language which is more positive and reflective of the importance and value of charities.

I’m going to experiment with terms like “for benefit organizations” and “social enterprises” and other terms. I’m not sure what term will “win out”, but I’m interested in the feedback and reactions of people as I start on this new language trail.

And this doesn’t even begin to address the question about why charities can’t earn profits… (I know they can technically do so in some circumstances, but it gets pretty complicated with IRS)

New iPad/Kindle device for children @ $75

May 27th, 2010 No comments »

One Laptop per Child folks are continuing to push the envelope … a device made completely of plastic … and running Google’s Android OS = lots of apps!

More details…

New mobile Facebook free in emerging markets

May 18th, 2010 No comments »

0 facebookYou don’t even need a data plan if you have one of the 50+ mobile operators listed below.  It’s called 0.facebook.com.

This could be a great new communications and collaboration tool for many of the world’s literate poor who increasingly have a mobile phone.

Here’s an overview on Techcrunch.

facebook zero

Ethnic Minorities in Myanmar

May 16th, 2010 No comments »

Burma mapI recently spent a week in Myanmar and posted updates on the situation in Myanmar and perspectives on Myanmar.

One of the less known facts about Myanmar is that while ethnic Burmans represent an estimated 60-65% of the population of about 50 million (this may be low), the balance of the population are other ethnicities.  Here are a few of the highlights:

  • There are more than 100 ethnic groups, languages and dialects in Myanmar … one of the richest diversities of any South Asia country.
  • Most of the ethnic minorities live in mountainous areas of the country … mostly on the borders with other countries.
  • The largest minorities are Shan and Karen groups while Mon, Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, Karenni/Kayah, Chinese, Indian, Danu, Akha, Kokang, Lahu, Naga, Palaung, Pao, Rohyinga, Tavoyan, and Wa peoples also have substantial members.
  • Civilians living in ethnic areas are the worst affected by the country’s 60-year-old war, constituting the majority of its victims.
  • Between 1996 and 2006 the internal conflicts generated an estimated 1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) many of whom were drawn from ethnic nationalities.
  • While the majority of people in Myanmar are Theravada Buddhists, the majority of Kachin and Chin and a significant minority of Karen are Christians.  Rohingya are Muslims.

The military government has sought to make the Burmese language, Buddhism and Burman culture as the single identity for the country.  Some have welcomed this as necessary for creating a stable and unified country.  Others have characterized this as a significant violation of human rights for the ethnic and religious minorities.

This is the context in which Myanmar finds itself today approaching their first elections in 20+ years.  It is no wonder why there is such debate and disagreement amongst political parties over whether to participate or not in these less-than-fully-democratic elections.

As the Venezuelean opposition has discovered, boycotting elections gives you less voice in public policy.  I believe that it would be better for the opposition parties to participate in the elections and to work for reform and progress from within the system rather than from the outside.  I realize that some people disagree with me on this.

Perspectives on Myanmar

April 21st, 2010 3 comments »
Remains of library building destroyed by Cyclone Nargis

Remains of library building destroyed by Cyclone Nargis

Earlier this month, I visited Myanmar (formerly Burma) and had the privilege of meeting with a wide variety of people from all walks of life.  Earlier, I posted a summary of the current situation in Myanmar. I thought I would share some of my interactions to help paint a picture of current day Myanmar.

Part II: Perspectives on Myanmar

WorldVision Team.  We were able to meet with James Tumbuan, country head for the large INGO, WorldVision based in Yangon.  James explained to us that WorldVision started operating in Burma in 1960 and now has 31 active area development projects.  They also have a significant operation in the Irrawaddy Delta in response to recovery efforts after Cyclone Nargis hit in May 2008.  In Bogalay (delta), we were warmly greeted by the WV staff and generously transported by speed boat to visit 6 villages in the delta which had been largely destroyed by Nargis.  We were able to visit some pretty remote villages where WV has been building schools, early child care and development centers and many other relief and development services.  I was impressed with how their projects were designed in partnership with each community.  We met one WV staff member who was continuing to volunteer in supporting communities after her contract was finished!  The WV engineering team also helped us estimate the cost for construction of library buildings!

College Bond Students.  Dottie Guyot and her husband James set up a Pre-Collegiate Program to help Myanmar high school graduates prepare for and earn scholarships for overseas college programs.  I was invited to lead an introduction to microfinance discussion with the current class of 15+ students.  I realized in the midst of comparing microfinance with the typical financial services available to middle class citizens that these students had no personal experience of a functioning financial system.  In 2002, Myanmar’s banking system largely stopped operating.  There are no credit cards.  Loans for individuals and most businesses are unheard of.  Everything is a cash economy.  Besides North Korea, I can’t think of another country which has no banking system!

The Ambassador.  I met with U Nyunt Tin, former ambassador to Canada, France and Indonesia and a retired Myanmar air force officer.  He explained to me that he had participated on the constitutional advisory council assisting with the new Myanmar constitution.  He said it was a fascinating process engaging with a wide variety of people including many leaders from the minority ethnic groups.  While he admitted that the final result was a compromise, he was quite encouraged by the result and broad-based participation.  He is involved in setting up a new microfinance program and has personally committed much of his assets to get this going in a substantial way.  We had a good discussion about the opportunity to present to the central bank some good examples of pro-microfinance regulatory frameworks successfully adopted and implemented by other emerging countries.

Village Girl.  In one Irrawaddy Delta village, I was able to interview a girl of about 9 years old.  She explained how during Nargis, she survived by clinging to her father’s back as the waters rose.  She lost her mother.

Military Attache to US Government.  I met with a retired woman who had worked for a number of years in Washington DC as the office manager for the Burma military attache.  As the main office English speaker, she was the go-between in all of the official and unofficial dealings.  Later she worked for the UN in Myanmar as an expert on disaster relief.  She and her brother, a retired professor, were so excited about our work to rebuild Nargis destroyed libraries that they accompanied us to Bogalay.  I had an interesting discussion with her about life in Rangoon (now Yangon) during the Japanese occupation for 3 years in the second world war.

Rice Farmers.  Over 3 days, we visited 10 separate villages in the Irrawaddy delta which had in common that their libraries were all destroyed by Nargis.  In each village we had the opportunity to meet with the village leadership including the local headman.  In most cases, their primary occupation was rice farming.  We learned that Nargis flooding caused salt to be deposited on their rice paddies “poisoning” the paddy fertility.  Four harvests later they are still having lower yields.  If that wasn’t enough, Nargis killed all of the snakes and owls … the only predator of rats, which survived.  Rats now destroy their crops.  Additionally, small crabs introduced by Nargis flooding also destroy rice yields.  This is very challenging situation.

The Librarian.  I met multiple librarians in Yangon and Bogalay.  At one privately operated community library in Yangon called Dr. Chitmaung Library, we met an impressive librarian and one of her volunteer staff members.  They had very creatively figured out how to make the library operationally financially self-sustaining.  They generated income from annual memberships ($2/year), small fees for English classes and fees for PC usage in their Internet cafe.  They had no budget for books or periodical acquisition so they relied on us and other donors for their collections.  Their PC lab was largely managed by college-aged youth who previously took advantage of library services as children.  This was one impressive operation!

Municipal Librarian.  In Yangon, we visited the largest municipal public library and met the staff.  They excitedly showed us the English language children’s books that they have received from us.  They were now for the first time attracting children to their library.  They showed us their e-library which consisted of a dozen PCs and a library of 100+ CD-ROMs mostly oriented towards college prep.  They still didn’t have any Internet connectivity.  We also saw stacks of a booklet with info on the upcoming election which they told us was very popular.

Library Entrepreneur.  We met the young brother and sister duo, Zar Ni Htet and Khin Kyi Nyoon who had recently established a new college prep library and learning center in downtown Yangon called Knowledge Bank.  They have a vision for helping high school graduates gain the skills necessary to attend college in Myanmar or overseas.  They have created a first class facility including a library of ebooks which members can access via Amazon Kindle or Sony eReader.

IDE.  I met Jared in Bogalay who works with IDE Myanmar.  I first learned of IDE through Paul Polak’s Out of Poverty book.  He was in the delta to interview farmers who were using their products including their small farm optimized treadle pump.  Jared told me that engineers in Yangon had designed a new treadle pump costing $10 lowering the price from their current $25 product.

Business Owner.  I met with a business owner who operates multiple businesses in Myanmar.  He earns most of his revenue related to tourism.  He explained to me how the government limits and duties on importing automobiles required him to pay $100,000 for a car which would cost < $30,000 in the USA.  He also described how he had to pay $1,500+ for his mobile phone number.  He exports a number of artisan products, but he can’t export to the USA due to sanctions … only hurting artisan workers.

MFI CEO.  I met with Fahmid Karim Bhuiya, CEO of Pact Myanmar, the largest microfinance bank in Myanmar called Pact Myanmar.  Fahmid was previously with BRAC in Bangladesh moving in 1997 to Myanmar to start this new MFI.  Over the past year they have added 100K+ clients for a total of 423K client representing about 80% of MFI clients in Myanmar.  They have a loan portfolio of US$25M with average loan size of $76 supported by a staff of 1,700.  They are one of the largest employers in the Irrawaddy delta where they have dramatically expanded since Nargis.  Their major funder is UNDP.  They have reached financial break-even despite 30% inflation.  They have 400+ clients per loan officer which is very efficient especially considering the population density where they are operating.  Impressively, they now offer 9 financial products including health loan, agriculture loan and education loan.  There biggest challenge is the lack of financial regulation in Myanmar which requires them to continue in an ambiguous legal state as a UN project.

Worker productivity really does matter everywhere

April 18th, 2010 No comments »

worker productivityThe Economist recently reported some interesting observations about why Latin America has fallen so far behind the economic growth in East Asia.

One word — Worker Productivity

The chart on the right shows that in the past 30 years relative to the USA, workers in East Asia have increased their productivity faster and workers in Latin America and the Caribbean have not kept up with the USA and are way behind East Asia.

We’re talking about about 2% lower productivity growth EACH YEAR between Latin America and East Asia!  Anyone who understands compound growth mathematics sees how significant this is.

At its core, productivity growth means getting more output from the same amount of inputs.  And since we’re in a global economy, if others are increasing their productivity and you aren’t … you are going to become less competitive and therefore lose business to other more productivity workers … who will in turn be paid more for their increased productivity.

Much of this is structural:

  • East Asia has chosen to focus on sectors (including manufacturing and agriculture) where productivity gains are typically higher.  Latin America’s workforce is 60% in services.
  • East Asia has more larger, formal economy businesses which benefit from economies of scale.
  • Latin America, maybe surprising to some, has worse infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, etc.)  Example: freight costs from Latin America to USA are more expensive than from Asia to USA

There are exceptions — Chile has consistently had higher productivity growth than the USA and so has Brazil more recently.

With less than 1/3 of Latin America works covered by social-security systems, many governments have created non-contribution social schemes to cover everyone else.  Unfortunately, this discourages people from entering the formal economy.

Read full Economist article

The situation in Myanmar

April 11th, 2010 3 comments »
IMG_1638

Boy fetching water in Yangon, Myanmar

I just returned from 7 days in Myanmar (formerly called Burma).  I’m going to make a couple of posts on my learnings and thoughts.

Part I: The Situation in Myanmar

Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962 after becoming independent from the British Empire in 1948.  Myanmar has made global headlines over the past few years on the following topics:

  • Continued house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi — the face of the democratic resistance and promoted recently by Bono in U2’s concerts
  • The ongoing international sanctions led by USA and EU to “pressure” the military into convert to a democracy
  • The Burmese monks protest in 2007 which was brutally repressed by the military
  • The devastating Cyclone (hurricane) Nargis in May 2008 which killed an estimated 150,000-200,000 people and left many more injured and vast damage
  • The new Burmese constitution being rolled out ahead of elections scheduled for later this year

In many ways Myanmar is a very dysfunctional place due to its military rule and international sanctions.  Here are just a few examples:

  • Cell phone numbers cost $1,500+ and (along with landlines), don’t work reliably
  • Automobiles cost 4-5x what they do in the USA (hence, out of reach for vast majority of 50M+ populace)
  • The country has been in civil war almost constantly since 1948 independence
  • Electricity is only available in major cities.  In Yangon (largest city at 5M+), it only runs 12 hours/day and less everywhere else (except the newly formed capital city in the middle of nowhere)
  • Internet access is severely restricted by censoring (probably worse than China)…and with electricity outages…
  • All non-government operated schools were banned in 1962 eliminating the best schools … and universities were purposely split up after 1990 dishonored elections
  • Essentially no banking system (for anyone) after 2002 foreign banks were pushed out and key domestic banks failed … so everything is a cash economy … literally!

Some of the bright spots:

  • High literacy rate — 90%+ … Burmese love to read!
  • Private schools, while still not authorized, are now tolerated and provide an option (for people with money)
  • Myanmar has vast natural resources – including timber, gems and oil/gas – and was once the world’s largest rice exporter
  • Private investment has been increasing in the past few years — both domestic and foreign
  • The currency is now pretty stable … with only 30% inflation
  • The Burmese people (and many other ethnic groups) are hard-working and English (the global business language) is the 2nd most used language
  • Elections are coming!  While the military has structured the new constitution so that they can continue to control, these are the first elections in 20 years and the first potentially elected government since 1962.

In the next post, I’ll share about the amazing range of interesting people I met with — including a former ambassador, some of the most interesting domestic and international NGOs at work in Myanmar, the head of the largest microfinance institution, government officials, a major local investor, the retired head national librarian, students who are preparing for overseas college, village leaders, village farmers and teachers, business people, librarians, children in villages and more.  Read more…

A better way of tracking economic growth?

March 14th, 2010 1 comment »

poor man's burdenKaushik Basu of Cornell University and author of Prelude to Political Economy: A Study of the Social and Political Foundations of Economics, researched and found that governments rarely listen to economic advisors unless they are telling them what they want to hear.

Basu recently became the chief economic advisor to India’s finance ministry and so now has to see if he can overcome this issue.

In support of India’s elusive “inclusive growth” strategy, Basu has proposed a different way to measure GDP growth than the traditional approach of the economy as a whole.  He proposes that the country should measure the per-capita income growth of the bottom 20% (quintile) of the population.  Hence, this measures how much better the poorest are getting rather than the “average” citizen.

He goes further and suggests that it is not enough that the bottom quintile grows at the same rate as the average, but that the bottom 20% should get an equal absolute share of the income the economy adds.  So, if the economy adds $100B per year, the bottom 20% should add 20% of $100B or $20B to their income.

This is quite radical.  And, as The Economist notes, a “high bar indeed.”

I fear that this is an unrealistic goal and when you have unrealistic goals, often no progress is made.  I think it would be more productive to focus on an per-capita income growth for the bottom 20% which is substantially above the country’s average.  So, if the economy is expected to growth 7% overall, that you set a goal of the bottom 20% growing at 10% or 12% or some other progressive, but not unrealistic goal.

Your thoughts?

Portfolios of the Poor book review

February 21st, 2010 No comments »

portfolios of the poorRecommended Reading

Portfolios of the Poor: How the World’s Poor Live on $2 a Day

by Collins, Morduch, Rutherford & Ruthven

This recently published book has got a lot of buzz amongst the microfinance industry as providing new insights into the actual financial activities of < $2/day (key UN definition of very poor) families.  The book includes the one-year financial “diaries” of 250 families living on $2/day in Bangladesh, India and South Africa painstakingly collected by researchers after building trust with families to share their daily financial transaction details.  These are summarized into cash flow and household “balance sheet” statements to analyze the fascinating volume and scale of financial transactions which these families  juggle in order to survive, and occasionally thrive.

There are a lot of good insights in this book and I recommend it for those who value data in order to design innovative and helpful financial services for base of the financial pyramid families.  Here are a few highlights I noted:

  • Every family had both loans and savings
  • Families accessed on average of 8-10 different financial instruments in the year
  • Cash flow turnover was up to 300-500% of total net income
  • Incomes are not just low, but also uneven and unpredictable … creating higher complexity to manage cash
  • Families often borrow even when they have savings
  • It is not uncommon for savers to pay interest/fees rather than receive them to those holding their savings
  • Moneylenders are often used for short-term loans … interest paid perceived as a convenience fee rather than interest rate
  • Flexibility/adaptability is a critical factor when the poor select financial services
  • Financial transactions outside the formal financial system (including MFIs) greatly outnumber those with MFIs
  • The downsides of informal financial transactions:  unreliability, lack of privacy, lack of transparency

Poor households would benefit greatly from reliable, convenient, reasonably pricing “formal” financial tools to help with:

  • daily cash flow management
  • savings (for long-term needs)
  • borrowing for flexible uses
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