Posts Tagged ‘economist’

India — the world’s big new workforce

August 17th, 2010

A new report highlighted by The Economist, reports that 3 out of 10 new workers in the next decade will be in India.  That’s right, India.  Not China.  By 2020, India will add 110M new workers.

A few stats on India’s worker landscape:

  • Expect that about 1/3 of those people will work in the services sector (think: IT outsourcing and the like)
  • India’s manufacturing sector has grown at 8% per year over the past decade … last year surpassing agriculture sector in terms of GDP with 16.1% employing about 12% of population
  • Labor to capital ratios in many areas including clothing, jewellery and toymaking have halved in the last decade … that is, worker productivity has dramatically increased
  • India’s factories skew to being small or very large (see chart) due to more then 200 federal and state labour laws.  Most damaging is the Industrial Disputes Act which requires the government’s permission for company’s with > 100 employees before letting anyone go.
  • Labour-intensive businesses in states with more flexible labor laws grew at 7% per year (for the last 20 years) vs. 3.5% per year for the same time period.

So with no major new labor law reforms in sight, the question is where will the 70M non-service sector new workers find (or make) employment?

A better measure of global poverty?

August 9th, 2010

Researchers at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at the University of Oxford have created a new way of measuring poverty which takes into account more factors than income.  Called the “Multidimensional Poverty Index”, it includes factors such as:

  • Does a family have a dirt or dung floor?
  • Do they have a decent toilet/latrine?
  • Must family members travel more than 30 minutes on foot to get clean water?
  • Do they live without electricity?
  • Is a family member malnourished?
  • Are all school aged children enrolled in school?

A household is counted as poor if it is deprived on over 30% of the ten indicators.

What’s interesting (see chart) is that this results in substantial differences in estimations of families living below poverty level when compared to the traditional World Bank measure of $1.25/day (adjusted for purchasing power).

For instance, under this new measure, Ethiopia has almost 90% of population in poverty vs. less than 40% under the $1.25/day measure.  While Tanzania (which does better at getting its people fed, housed and educated) actually have significantly lower estimate of poverty under this new measure.

It will be interesting to see if this new measurement catches on vs. the much easier to measure daily income metric.

Reference: The Economist

Worker productivity really does matter everywhere

April 18th, 2010

worker productivityThe Economist recently reported some interesting observations about why Latin America has fallen so far behind the economic growth in East Asia.

One word — Worker Productivity

The chart on the right shows that in the past 30 years relative to the USA, workers in East Asia have increased their productivity faster and workers in Latin America and the Caribbean have not kept up with the USA and are way behind East Asia.

We’re talking about about 2% lower productivity growth EACH YEAR between Latin America and East Asia!  Anyone who understands compound growth mathematics sees how significant this is.

At its core, productivity growth means getting more output from the same amount of inputs.  And since we’re in a global economy, if others are increasing their productivity and you aren’t … you are going to become less competitive and therefore lose business to other more productivity workers … who will in turn be paid more for their increased productivity.

Much of this is structural:

  • East Asia has chosen to focus on sectors (including manufacturing and agriculture) where productivity gains are typically higher.  Latin America’s workforce is 60% in services.
  • East Asia has more larger, formal economy businesses which benefit from economies of scale.
  • Latin America, maybe surprising to some, has worse infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, etc.)  Example: freight costs from Latin America to USA are more expensive than from Asia to USA

There are exceptions — Chile has consistently had higher productivity growth than the USA and so has Brazil more recently.

With less than 1/3 of Latin America works covered by social-security systems, many governments have created non-contribution social schemes to cover everyone else.  Unfortunately, this discourages people from entering the formal economy.

Read full Economist article

A better way of tracking economic growth?

March 14th, 2010

poor man's burdenKaushik Basu of Cornell University and author of Prelude to Political Economy: A Study of the Social and Political Foundations of Economics, researched and found that governments rarely listen to economic advisors unless they are telling them what they want to hear.

Basu recently became the chief economic advisor to India’s finance ministry and so now has to see if he can overcome this issue.

In support of India’s elusive “inclusive growth” strategy, Basu has proposed a different way to measure GDP growth than the traditional approach of the economy as a whole.  He proposes that the country should measure the per-capita income growth of the bottom 20% (quintile) of the population.  Hence, this measures how much better the poorest are getting rather than the “average” citizen.

He goes further and suggests that it is not enough that the bottom quintile grows at the same rate as the average, but that the bottom 20% should get an equal absolute share of the income the economy adds.  So, if the economy adds $100B per year, the bottom 20% should add 20% of $100B or $20B to their income.

This is quite radical.  And, as The Economist notes, a “high bar indeed.”

I fear that this is an unrealistic goal and when you have unrealistic goals, often no progress is made.  I think it would be more productive to focus on an per-capita income growth for the bottom 20% which is substantially above the country’s average.  So, if the economy is expected to growth 7% overall, that you set a goal of the bottom 20% growing at 10% or 12% or some other progressive, but not unrealistic goal.

Your thoughts?

Microcredit helps the entrepreneurial poor

August 12th, 2009

india community meeting

The Economist published an article called, A partial marvel, last month which summarizes the results of various research which evaluates the value of microcredit in helping the poor.  The Net:  Not everything (as expected) is rosy.

Here are a few highlights:

  • Funds still subsidized. 53% of the $11.7B committed to microfinance industry came at rates below-market levels.
    • COMMENT: This is a HUGE change as just 5 years ago that number was probably closer to 90%.  Also, in countries like India, the government mandates that banks lend at a lower rate to those serving the poor, which isn’t all bad.
  • Measuring impact is complicated.  Traditional approaches of having control groups (similar people who are denied loans) and comparing those to those receiving the opportunity (borrowers) are very difficult to implement.  Some also wonder if microcredit is inproportionately allocated to those who are entrepreneurial.
    • COMMENT:  This is all true.  It is very difficult to find comparable groups and then it’s expensive to monitor effects over a long period of time … and deny them the opportunity.  And why is it unfair that those who demonstrate more entrepreneurial skills shouldn’t be trusted with more credit?
  • Few new businesses started. The majority of microcredit loans are used to finance an existing business and not for starting a new business.  Study in Hyderabad showed only 20% of loans funded a new business.
    • COMMENT:  This is my experience as well.  Microcredit loans generally have a standard bell curve distribution where a small % of borrowers are incredibly successful (including starting new businesses), a small % of borrowers actually become worse off and most borrowers do OK.  This is the real world.
  • Functions as seed capital.  “Microcredit clearly allowed more people to overcome the barrier posed by start-up costs [to start or expand a business]” and “By being willing to take a risk on entrepreneurial sorts who lack any other way to start a business, microcredit may help reduce poverty in the longer run.”
    • COMMENT:  I think this is right.  As an entrepreneur myself, I know the huge value of seed capital to get a new business off the ground.  Wealth is built over time, not instantly.

Urban housing for the world’s poor

July 6th, 2009

One of the largest market failures has been the lack of reasonable housing options for the developing world urban poor. But this may soon be changing.

If you’ve been to a developing nation city in the past 20 years, you have likely observed the historically huge migration of people from rural to urban. This is driven by both the lack of opportunity in most rural areas and the relative increase in economic opportunity in the cities. The result is the massive growth of slums or so called informal or extra-legal housing. In fact, while most of the housing does not include any legal rights for the residents, an informal model has developed for buying, selling and renting which is managed through local systems which aren’t part of the government. The trouble is that since this system is outside the legal system that it costs more to administrate and property cannot be used for collateral and other important benefits. Hernando Desoto has written extensively about the issue of property rights.

Recently, The Economist reported that there are new approaches to creating affordable housing starting to show up in India. In Mumbai, a reasonable size flat can easily fetch $500,000 which is way above what most Indians can afford. So, developers are now building extremely basic flats outside the city (within commuting distance) targeting price points that are affordable for many more Indians. Ashish Karamchandani of Monitor Group India notes that there are already 23M urban families in India with incomes of 60,000-130,000 rupees ($1,200-$2,500) per year who can afford these new type of flats (typically with payments of 30-40% of their income).

When I met Ashish in Mumbai earlier this year, he was very excited about this opportunity to transform India urban housing. Ashish and his team have been working with Geoff Woolley, a social venture capitalist to develop a business plan for expanding low-cost urban housing in India. Geoff told me a few months back that once the financial crisis hit that suddenly all of the housing developers who had been 100% focused on [now over-built] high-end housing and had no interest in high-volume, lower cost housing were suddenly converts to the new opportunity. Geoff has also been negotiating with some of the microfinance organizations to find clients who were ready and financially qualified for the new housing. If they are able to pre-sell the low-cost housing, then the developer can dramatically reduce their financing costs which means that much of this savings can be passed along to the buyer with still a reasonable profit for the developer. A win-win!

I think India could be a pioneer in finding solutions to this important social problem which could possibly then be “exported” to other developing urbanscapes.

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