Archive for the ‘poverty stats’ category

Is the world getting better?

February 13th, 2008

Most people perceive that the world is a pretty rotten place and getting more rotten. We’ve got more wars/violence, more inequity, Africa getting poorer, climate change, etc.

The Economist recently published an article sharing statistics about how the world is doing looking at three categories: the underlying social condition in poor countries, poverty alleviation over the past decade and the incidence of wars and political violence. The net is that while there definitely are some rotten things going on, the net is that over all the world is a much better place for most people than it was a decade ago. Here are a few of items from the article (please read the article for more details as there are a lot!):

  • 25 years ago in China, over 600M people were living on < $1/day. Today this number is 180M … meaning 420M+ people are now above this level.
  • Between 1999 and 2004, 135M people worldwide rose from < $1/day to above this level. This is more people, more quickly than at any other time in history.
  • In South Asia, the number of people without clean water has halved since 1990.
  • In 1975, 75% of people aged 15-25 were literate. Now the rate is almost 90%.
  • In 1970, the fertility rate in East Asia/Pacific was 5.4 and now is 2.1 In South Asia, it was 60 and now is 3.1. Overall, global fertility has fallen from 4.8 to 2.6 in 25 years. Africa has all but one of the countries with fertility rates above 5.0.
  • A World Bank study noted that every 1% increase in national income her person in an emerging country translated in 1.3% fall in extreme poverty.
  • In 2007, the global economy entered its fifth year of over 4% growth — the longest period of expansion since the 1970’s. Also, trade grew 9% despite all of the challenges.
  • Almost half of all humans lives in countries with growth of more than 7% per year (which doubles the economy every decade).
  • Inequality has risen in both rich and poor countries overall, but there are examples where this is not true questioning whether globalization is the main culprit of inequality. The Economist argues that lack of [quality] education is likely the biggest culprit.
  • In 1990, more than 25% of people in developing countries lived on < $1/day. At current rates, this will be 10% by 2015.
  • Income is not the only way to quantify improvement for the poor. Monetary measures understate the real gains from things such as lower child mortality, safer water, literacy and other social achievements.
  • A study shows that the number of conflicts (international and civil) fell from over 50 at the start of the 1990’s to just over 30 in 2005. The number of international wars peaked in the 1970’s and have been falling ever since. The death toll in battle fell from over 200,000 a year in the mid-1990’s to below 20,000 in the mid-2000’s. [The WHO has higher numbers.]
  • The number of incidents of terrorism has increased since 2001 although the number is still very small.

I am not trying to say our efforts to accelerate the end of poverty should be reduced, but simply to notice and celebrate where progress has been made.

Were many of these data points a surprise to anyone else besides me?

Gates Foundation on global poverty

March 24th, 2006

I heard Raj Shah, Director, Strategic Opportunities at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation speak this week at a public conversation in Seattle on local and global poverty. He made some interesting remarks and shared some data they use at the Gates Foundation.

  • Gates Foundation has a vision on basic human rights … that every person should:
    • have a shot at a healthy full-length life
    • have an opportunity for a basic education
    • be able to provide for their basic needs
  • Top things that developing nations have missed out on preventing them from benefiting from wealth creation enjoyed by developed nations:
    • Massive agricultural productivity increases
    • Industrial revolution
    • Knowledge revolution
  • Gates Foundation estimates poverty breakdown as follows:
    • 1 billion people live on <$1/day
    • another 2 billion people live on $1-$2/day
    • another 1 billion people live on $2-$4/day
    • for a total of 4 billion people living on <$4/day
  • To provide context for these income levels …
    • the USA federal poverty level for a family of 3 is set at $16,000/year
    • this is equivalent to ~$15/person/day or almost 4x what 4 billion people live on
    • many people think that the USA poverty level should be 2x of $32,000/year for a family of 3
  • 11 million children under the age of 5 die each year of which 50% could have been saved with proper vaccines at the cost of about US$0.12-0.13 each.
  • 430 million people have been able to escape poverty in the past few decades because of an agricultural innovation (which improved the productivity and resiliency of certain crops) known as the green revolution
  • Monsanto has developed a drought-resistant gene which could have significant benefit for many countries crop output — especially those which haven’t benefited from the green revolution

I looked up the World Bank’s latest statistics on global poverty in their 2005 report. Due to their research cycles, the latest data is from 2001:

  • ~1.1 billion people live on <$1/day
  • ~1.6 billion people live on $1-$2/day
  • for a total of ~2.7 billion people living on <$2/day

The history of wealth

August 10th, 2005

Here are some interesting historical insights from Jeffrey Sachs’ book, The End of Poverty.

  • There was no discernible rise in living standards on a global scale from 0 A.D. through 1000 A.D. as population rose from 230m to 270m
  • There was approx. 50% increase in per capita income between 1000 A.D. thr 1800 A.D. as population rose from 270m to 900m
  • Since 1800, global population has risen 6-fold to 6.1b while per capita income rose 9-fold with USA per capita income rising 25-fold and European 15-fold
  • Total worldwide food production more than kept up with the population growth
  • Gross world product rose 49-fold in the past 180 years
  • Every region in the world has had a growth in GNP in the past 180 years … so every nation has gotten wealthier in absolute terms
  • In 1820, the biggest gap between the wealthiest nation (UK) and the poorest (Africa) was 4:1 in per capita income
  • In 1998, the gap between the wealthiest (USA) and poorest (Africa) was 20:1 per capita income
  • This gap is a result of USA GNP growing at an average of 1% more per year (1.7% for USA vs. 0.7% for Africa) over 180 years [the power of compound growth at work!]
  • Modern (last 200 years) economic growth is accompanied first and foremost by urbanization. As agricultural productivity rises, nations need fewer farmers, food prices fall, inducing farmers and especially their children to seek employment in nonfarm activities. There is also an advantage to high-density urban life for most nonfarm activities especially for commerce and services sector.
  • Probably the single largest contributor to prosperity growth is the transmission of technologies and the ideas underlying them driven by science-based ideas of ways to organize production. Ideas are considered nonrival as one person’s use of an idea does not diminish the ability of others to use it as well.
  • In the year 2000, the 400 richest Americans had income totalling $69 billion (yes, billion) averaging $174m for each taxpayer. The combined income of Botswana, Nigeria, Senegal & Uganda in 2000 was $57b (161m people at per capita of $350).

Water Statistics

August 3rd, 2005

Interesting stats from the NY Times:

$46 billion – Amount spent per year globally on bottled water

$1.7 billion – Amount needed per year beyond current spending to provide clean drinking water to everyone on earth

More than one billion – Number of people worldwide who lack reliable access to safe drinking water

80 – Percentage of world illnesses due to water-borne diseases