This is a continuation from Part I which focused on a recent New Yorker article.

New York Times Article

Elizabeth Malkin recent wrote an article in the New York Times called, Microfinance’s Success Sets Off a Debate in Mexico where she outlines some of the issues in the debate on the commercialization of microfinance. This article focuses on Banco Compartamos, a successful microfinance bank in Mexico, which went public in 2007 resulting in a large amount of publicity on investor returns from a bank which serves Mexico’s poor.

First, if you’d like to get a deeper understanding of the Compartamos IPO, there is an excellent case study written by Richard Rosenberg and published by CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor … part of the World Bank) called CGAP Reflections on the Compartamos IPO. I have read this article in detail and found it very helpful in unpackaging the complexities, nuances and unique circumstances of the IPO which is often lost in the sound bites of both supporters and critics.

Here are a few [of the many!] facts surrounding the Compartamos IPO:

• Compartamos didn’t issue any new shares as this was a secondary offering. Rather, certain shareholders sold their holdings on the Mexican stock exchange.
• At the IPO, more than 2/3′s of the shares of Compartamos were held by NGO shareholders who were (and are) committed to reducing poverty.
• $275M or about 5/8ths of the IPO sale proceeds went to NGOs to reinvest in their missions and the rest (about $150M) went to private shareholders.
• The IPO made public (and realized in the case of the stock sellers) the investor returns which had accumulated while the company was private. That is, while there likely was some upward bump due to market conditions in the value of the shares through the IPO process, most of the investor returns were not related to the IPO itself.
• At the IPO, the market valuation of Compartamos was approximately $1.5B which represents a roughly 100% per year compounded return for investors over 8 years.
• The interest rates charged by Compartamos in terms of yield in 2005 was 86.3% (when you add required VAT, the rate to borrowers is about 100%.)

Needless to say, with these type of numbers floating around in the same sentence as “the poor” there are lots of opinions on this transaction and whether this is a positive or negative event for microfinance and ending poverty. Supporters (and even CGAP) say that this is going to result in a lot more private capital being directed to the poor resulting in a broader variety and higher-euality financial services being delivered to the poor. Critics highlight the high interest rates as gouging the poor and the amount of profits pocketed by private investors (although somewhat reduced in this situation) as being exploitive. And most everyone agrees that optically high profits in serving the poor could be used by populist politicians to argue for regulations on microfinance which could reduce the availability of financial services to the poor.

Here are some additional facts on Compartamos:

• To survive the heavy devaluation of the peso and inflation in 1995, Compartamos was forced to raise its interest rates (to its current rate levels) in order to survive.
• When this macro economic financial turmoil subsided in 2000, Compartamos chose not to reduce their interest rates in order to fund rapid expansion to reach new [poor] clients. CGAP report notes Compartamos’s growth rate of 46% per year post 2000 (vs. 24% in previous 4 years) would not have been possible without the higher retained profits from maintaining these interest rates.
• The interest rates charged by other Compartamos are about the mid-range range for what MFIs charge in Mexico and there isn’t much difference between the high and low rates.
• Of the interest earned by Compartamos, about 25% of it is profit. That is, they would make no profit if their interest rate was ~65%. [Note: when I asked the CEO of Mexican MFI competitor why they didn't charge a lower interest rate than Compartamos, he said that this would only put them at the disadvantage in their ability to fund growth of client reach. That is, they would grow more slowly serving fewer poor clients.]
• Their single largest cost is “operating expense” which is relatively high because they are continuing to forward invest in opening new offices to expand their client base. They are more cost efficient than most MFIs in Mexico.
• Most of Mexico’s population still have no access to bank services and credit in particular.

Here’s another interesting perspective on commercialization of microfinance titled “What would Leland Stanford do?” by Jonathan Lewis of MicroCredit Enterprises.

All of this data is hard to get your head around … yet alone come to a clear conclusion upon.

The question in my mind is whether in the long-run the Compartamos IPO will be a net positive or net negative for the poor in Mexico?

I think that on net it will result in a positive result for Mexico’s poor. The main factor is that the IPO has raised awareness of the bankability (investability) of the poor and this will attract more private capital which is the only source large enough to support the development of a broad range of financial services for the poor. While I expect that in the short-run that interest rates for microloans aren’t going to drop much, I do think that competition will drive down interest rates in the medium term as more players enter the market. I do hope that competition comes sooner rather than later in order to avert meddling by populist politicians.

Now there’s lots of fodder in this post for some controversy. So, please post your comments with as much objectivity as possible ;-) Disagreements are fine.

It is healthy and expected for any growing trend or endeavor to receive critique and microfinance is no exception. I’ve decided to do a mini-round up of some recent critiques for those of you who might not have seen them.

The New Yorker Article

The New Yorker recently published an article by James Surowiecki called What Microloans Miss. In this article, Surowiecki argues that while microloans definitely have positive impact they are not what poor countries need most in order to get richer. He observes that the majority of people in developed countries are salaried workers, not entrepreneurs, hence we need more new small/medium businesses which hire people (he calls the “missing middle”.) He also states that microloans are often used for non-business activities including providing consumption credit during lower income periods. He calls for more focus on equity investments vs. loans to small businesses in addition to loans. In summary, he says “for some people the best route out of poverty will be a bank loan. But for most it’s going to be something much simpler: a regular paycheck.”

Microfinance network Pro Mujer CEO, Ben Moyer posted a response where he argues that “the goal [of microloans] is not to make “poor countries richer”; it is to bring desperately poor people out of poverty by helping them to become self-sufficient.” He goes on to note that “For now, the impoverished semiliterate and illiterate women receiving microloans won’t benefit from investments in the ‘missing middle.’ Microcredit will continue to offer the best return on investment, because it eradicates poverty one person at a time.”

I think that this isn’t an either/or type of issue, but an AND … that is, we need to encourage the continued growth of microfinance and new growing enterprises which create income for families in poor countries.

Microfinance appears to be the best tool available to quickly grow the income of desparately poor families to the point which they can get above the poverty line. That is, they can become relatively stable in being able to provide for their basic needs. Microfinance requires relatively small amounts of capital and infrastructure which means that it can reach and serve large numbers of families very quickly. And you can start to see income improvements in terms of weeks, not years. So, while I agree that we should not over-hype and over-promise on how microfinance can reduce extreme poverty, I also think we should not underestimate the continued positive impact it is having. More importantly, there are many countries and regions where microfinance is almost non-existent, so we need to continue to encourage increased investment to bring this baseline financial service to these families.

There is indeed a dirth of financing options available for new small business … even high-potential ones … in emerging economies. I wrote previously about this “funding gap“. Also, there is a good article by Vinay Ganti which dives further into this topic. The reality though is that this is a medium to long term contributor to emerging market income due to the nature of starting and growing these businesses. It doesn’t mean we should not start investing now!

Also, to get perspective on the reality of timelines for dramatically changing systems, I recommend Hernando Desoto’s groundbreaking book on the history, state and importance of adequate property rights described in his book, The Mystery of Capital. Desoto reviews the history and complexity of the development of property rights in the USA (and other countries) not to discourage more acceleration in property rights in other countries, but on the contrary to help articulate the lessons learned in order to accelerate property rights in emerging countries. We want to deconstruct (in order to understand) the accelerated success of new business starts in certain Asian countries over the past 50 years in order to better encourage similar growth in countries which have not yet participated in poverty reduction growth.

Read Part II

Please post your thoughts in comments.