Archive for the ‘Globalization’ category

India — the world’s big new workforce

August 17th, 2010

A new report highlighted by The Economist, reports that 3 out of 10 new workers in the next decade will be in India.  That’s right, India.  Not China.  By 2020, India will add 110M new workers.

A few stats on India’s worker landscape:

  • Expect that about 1/3 of those people will work in the services sector (think: IT outsourcing and the like)
  • India’s manufacturing sector has grown at 8% per year over the past decade … last year surpassing agriculture sector in terms of GDP with 16.1% employing about 12% of population
  • Labor to capital ratios in many areas including clothing, jewellery and toymaking have halved in the last decade … that is, worker productivity has dramatically increased
  • India’s factories skew to being small or very large (see chart) due to more then 200 federal and state labour laws.  Most damaging is the Industrial Disputes Act which requires the government’s permission for company’s with > 100 employees before letting anyone go.
  • Labour-intensive businesses in states with more flexible labor laws grew at 7% per year (for the last 20 years) vs. 3.5% per year for the same time period.

So with no major new labor law reforms in sight, the question is where will the 70M non-service sector new workers find (or make) employment?

Worker productivity really does matter everywhere

April 18th, 2010

worker productivityThe Economist recently reported some interesting observations about why Latin America has fallen so far behind the economic growth in East Asia.

One word — Worker Productivity

The chart on the right shows that in the past 30 years relative to the USA, workers in East Asia have increased their productivity faster and workers in Latin America and the Caribbean have not kept up with the USA and are way behind East Asia.

We’re talking about about 2% lower productivity growth EACH YEAR between Latin America and East Asia!  Anyone who understands compound growth mathematics sees how significant this is.

At its core, productivity growth means getting more output from the same amount of inputs.  And since we’re in a global economy, if others are increasing their productivity and you aren’t … you are going to become less competitive and therefore lose business to other more productivity workers … who will in turn be paid more for their increased productivity.

Much of this is structural:

  • East Asia has chosen to focus on sectors (including manufacturing and agriculture) where productivity gains are typically higher.  Latin America’s workforce is 60% in services.
  • East Asia has more larger, formal economy businesses which benefit from economies of scale.
  • Latin America, maybe surprising to some, has worse infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, etc.)  Example: freight costs from Latin America to USA are more expensive than from Asia to USA

There are exceptions — Chile has consistently had higher productivity growth than the USA and so has Brazil more recently.

With less than 1/3 of Latin America works covered by social-security systems, many governments have created non-contribution social schemes to cover everyone else.  Unfortunately, this discourages people from entering the formal economy.

Read full Economist article

A better way of tracking economic growth?

March 14th, 2010

poor man's burdenKaushik Basu of Cornell University and author of Prelude to Political Economy: A Study of the Social and Political Foundations of Economics, researched and found that governments rarely listen to economic advisors unless they are telling them what they want to hear.

Basu recently became the chief economic advisor to India’s finance ministry and so now has to see if he can overcome this issue.

In support of India’s elusive “inclusive growth” strategy, Basu has proposed a different way to measure GDP growth than the traditional approach of the economy as a whole.  He proposes that the country should measure the per-capita income growth of the bottom 20% (quintile) of the population.  Hence, this measures how much better the poorest are getting rather than the “average” citizen.

He goes further and suggests that it is not enough that the bottom quintile grows at the same rate as the average, but that the bottom 20% should get an equal absolute share of the income the economy adds.  So, if the economy adds $100B per year, the bottom 20% should add 20% of $100B or $20B to their income.

This is quite radical.  And, as The Economist notes, a “high bar indeed.”

I fear that this is an unrealistic goal and when you have unrealistic goals, often no progress is made.  I think it would be more productive to focus on an per-capita income growth for the bottom 20% which is substantially above the country’s average.  So, if the economy is expected to growth 7% overall, that you set a goal of the bottom 20% growing at 10% or 12% or some other progressive, but not unrealistic goal.

Your thoughts?

Connecting small farms to global supply chain

September 28th, 2008

This past week, the Wall Street Journal published an article called Weaving Africa’s Breadbasket which discussed the announcement by the Gates Foundation and the Howard Buffett Foundation that they will be subsidizing trials in 13 African and 4 Central American countries to help small farmers become suppliers to UN’s World Food Program (WFP). To date, the WFP, which buys about $1B worth of food each year, has only purchased from large suppliers who can meet their processing, quality and standardized packaging requirements. These trials involve the WFP making a 3 year commitment to purchase from up to 350,000 small farmers who participate in 21 countries including some small loans (essentially microfinance) to help with the investment to meet their standards.

As I discussed in my previous post titled Microfinance 3.0, this is an example of a growing number of attempts to provide supply aggregation services to further participation of the poor in the global economy. It is not uncommon for small farmers to receive as little as 1/3 of the retail price for their crop. This is due to multiple factors including minimal/no cold storage (enabling farmer some control over timing of sale for best price), poor transportation infrastructure (from field to market increasing cost) and inefficient (or predatory) trading middlemen who have the upper hand in dictating prices. The idea is to use the large buying power of a socially concerned buyer (WFP) to drive the investment to support modernization of the supply chain. A reliable buyer with higher guaranteed prices will encourage more farmers to buy into the system/model generating more food grown within the country encouraging more infrastructure and system improvements … continuing in a virtuous cycle … creating more economic development and self-sustainability.

Gates Foundation has been a tireless advocate for improving the economic opportunity for small farmers through implementation of better seeds and techniques. They are seeking to encourage a green revolution in Africa which has so hugely benefited Asia even though they have many critics taking pot shots at them despite not having any scalable practical alternatives. This is a logical next step to help farmers increase their income based on their investments.

I applaud Gates (and the Buffetts) for taking the lead in this interesting approach to bootstrap this new sector. I’m hoping that they can rapidly demonstrate a path to sustainability (or at least reduced subsidy) which will encourage less adventurous social capital (and possibly commercial capital) to support dramatic expansion of these programs.

Remittances top foreign aid

October 31st, 2007

A couple of weeks back at the International Forum on Remittances, a study was released which reported that global foreign remittances in 2006 totaled three times all aid provided by donor nations to developing countries (as reported by OECD). Global remittances totaled more than $300B while donor aid was $104B. Remittances even topped foreign direct investment in developing countries which totaled $167B (reported by the Institute of International Finance).

Remittances are the money transfers that foreign workers in developing countries send home to their family and relatives. Most of the transfers are between $100 and $300 at a time.

Remittances to India topped the list at $24.5B, followed by Mexico at $24.2B; China, $21B and the Philippines and Russia, $13.7B each.

And, guess what is growing the fastest? Your right, remittances!

This tells me that even if foreign does rise, it is likely to become an increasingly smaller contributor to capital transfer to developing countries and can never match the growing impact that migrant workers are having on the shifts in global capital.

How about we encourage easier, more secure and better priced options for people to send money back to their home countries? For many people, an ATM or Paypal or a mobile money transfer option would be a welcome solution.

I first read about this in the Philippine Daily Inquirer. Yes, I was in the Philippines last week ;-)

Affirmative action for the poor

October 19th, 2007

The Economist recently wrote about (article: With reservations) the current debate within India about whether the existing affirmative action (called “reservations” in India) quota legislation for the poor should be extended from higher-education education and government jobs to private companies.

First, there are a variety of viewpoints of who should get affirmative action benefits. Historically, these benefits have mostly been allocated to dalits (aka untouchables) and tribal peoples. Some now advocate that these reservations should also apply to the [much larger group of] lower caste peoples (some estimate at 500M+ in India) and non-Hindu poor including Muslims. There are many complicating factors and opinions on this due to the significant political partisanship of many of these groups. See my post on the India caste system for more details on this.

Second, there is a significant difference in attitude to caste within urban environment (where caste is discriminated against less) and rural (where it is still very strong). This makes it difficult to create laws which have the intended benefits of removing discrimination while not unhelpfully propping up those who don’t need the help and abuse these guarantees.

Third, the article notes that another confusing factor is that low-caste Indians are getting less poor at almost the same rate as the general population. The statistic they note is that between 1983 and 2004, the low-caste Indians spending power increased by 26.7% compared with 27.7% for the average Indian (source: National Sample Survey Organisation).

Fourth, there are also regional differences. In northern India, they note that for historical reasons that commerce is dominated by members of a few business castes, while in south India the business community has been more open to members of non-business castes.

So, does it really make sense to extend affirmative action quotas en masse to the private sector? Is this the right approach and priority to helping the poor? What do others think?

The seemingly impossible is possible

August 27th, 2007

In my quest for facts about poverty … here is very edutaining video by Hans Rosling demonstrating how developing countries are pulling themselves out of poverty. He shows us the next generation of his Trendalyzer software — which analyzes and displays data in amazingly accessible ways, allowing people to see patterns previously hidden behind mountains of stats. (Ten days later, he announced a deal with Google to acquire the software.) He also demos Dollar Street, a program that lets you peer in the windows of typical families worldwide living at different income levels. Be sure to watch straight through to the (literally) jaw-dropping finale.

Also, check out the GapMinder web service (now run by Google) … incredibly interesting!

Globalization — Good or Bad?

May 27th, 2007

I continue to be very interested in better understanding whether the globalization movement is having a net positive or negative impact on our economically disadvantaged brothers and sisters. I have a growing reading list on poverty-related literature from a wide variety of viewpoints. Bhagwati in In Defense of Globalization (read my review) argues for the net positive conclusion while pointing out numerous negatives. Sachs in The End of Poverty (read my review) argues that without a financial aid “jumpstart”, globalization will continue to bypass many people.

One of the best articles that I seen written on the impact of globalization was published on the front page of the Wall Street Journal on May 24, 2007 entitled “Wealth of Nations: Globalization’s Gains Come With a Price“.

Here’s the summary … 100′s of millions of those living in extreme poverty have been lifted out of poverty in the last 25 years AND the wealthiest 10% of the world’s citizens have grown proportionately richer in that same time.

One of the most astonishing stats is that between 1981 and 2005, more than 450 million people in China (alone) stepped out of extreme poverty (based on UN’s definition of < $1/day using purchasing power parity methodology.) Since China has received very little international aid, this is almost all attributable to globalization. "From 2000 to 2005, per capita income of the bottom 10% of urban households in China rose 26% ... while those in the top [10%] saw gains of 133%.

The net is that on an absolute basis, globalization has had a truly phenomenally positive impact on reducing poverty (especially in the historical context). Yet on a relative basis the wealthiest people have increased their wealth faster.

The results in Latin America have been more mixed with positive results for the extreme poor in El Salvador, Chile, Ecuador and Costa Rica while negative in Mexico, Colombia and Peru [see chart at top.]

The article also tells the story of the impact of globalization of a family in Mexico which helps personalize globalization and explain some of the complexities as new emerging markets compete for the new global economic opportunities.

Please respond in comments to this article. Is this a fair/helpful/accurate report?

India, the superpower?

February 12th, 2007

Good article in Fortune magazine titled: India, The Superpower? Think Again by Cait Murphy.

She points out that India has done a marvelous job in building a revenue (and tax) generating IT sector employing 1 million people, but it has only 7 million employed in the formal manufacturing sector vs. 100 million people in China. The bottom line is that India is not generating enough jobs for the 10+ million Indians who enter the job market each year.

Other economies in Southeast Asia have successfully developed ahead of India “by being relatively open to trade; by investing in primary and secondary education; and by building pretty decent infrastructure (not only roads and ports, but health clinics and water supplies). India has begun to embrace one leg of this triangle – freer trade … As for the other two legs of this development triangle – education and infrastructure – these are still badly broken. About a third of teachers fail to show up on any given day (and, of course, are unsackable); the supply of both water and power is expensive and unreliable.”

Other key areas which India needs to focus on before boasting about being a superpower: an unreformed state banking sector; labor regulations that actively discourage hiring; abstruse land laws (and consequent lack of land titles); misshapen subsidies that hurt the poor; and corruption that is broad, deep and ubiquitous.

It is a very good thing to have a free press which publicly calls out these kind of issues.

Bureaucracy stifles developing nations exports

December 16th, 2005

Tim Harford wrote an OpEd in today’s New York Times about the myriad of “self-imposed” export bureaucracy that most developing nations still have in place. The context and timing is related to this week’s Hong Kong WTO meetings where the rich nations are unwilling to move forward in reducing agricultural sudsidies which hurt exports of developing nations.

He explains that even if 100% of agricultural subsidies were eliminated, there would be still huge barriers for third world farmers to get their crops to export markets. In Central African Republic, it takes 116 days and 38 signatures for bananas to get to ships for export! On average, sub-Saharan Africa exporters face delays of nearly 50 days for each shipment and require some 20 signatures on at least 8 separate custom forms. (Source: Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs publication of the World Bank.) Can you think of a better situation for encouraging a culture of corruption?

An exporter in India requires 22 signatures on 10 documents placing India in the bottom 20 countries in the world for entrepreneurs wanting to export. Brazilian exporters require 39 days to get their produce onto a ship which means that some agricultural products are just not feasible to export.

In comparison, China can get exports moving in 20 days, the USA in 9 days and Denmark in 5 days.

Tim Harford is a columnist for The Financial Times and author of The Undercover Economist: Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, the Poor Are Poor.

75 million India poor helped in 10 years

October 23rd, 2005


I attended the official launch event of the new partnership alliance between microfinance leaders Unitus and Accion in Bangalore this past Friday. This is a unique partnership of two experienced and innovative organizations who are turning their expertise and resources to bring massive acceleration of access to microfinance to India, a country with 1/3 of world’s poorest and to date significantly underserved with the empowering help of microfinance services.

The alliance has set an extremely ambitious goal of serving 15 million poor households in India by 2015 estimating to touch conservatively 75 million people (assuming 5 people per household.) This would represent a massive impact on global poverty in addition to being a transforming process for India.

Unitus will be focusing on “scaling up” innovative, early-stage/start-up Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) and Accion will be focusing on helping large, traditional banks in India “down-scale” to start providing relevant financial services to the poorest. Unitus has a good start with current partnerships with 5 very promising MFIs who are demonstrating significant progress already.

An overview of Microfinance

Related Posts with Thumbnails