Archive for April, 2010

Perspectives on Myanmar

April 21st, 2010
Remains of library building destroyed by Cyclone Nargis

Remains of library building destroyed by Cyclone Nargis

Earlier this month, I visited Myanmar (formerly Burma) and had the privilege of meeting with a wide variety of people from all walks of life.  Earlier, I posted a summary of the current situation in Myanmar. I thought I would share some of my interactions to help paint a picture of current day Myanmar.

Part II: Perspectives on Myanmar

WorldVision Team.  We were able to meet with James Tumbuan, country head for the large INGO, WorldVision based in Yangon.  James explained to us that WorldVision started operating in Burma in 1960 and now has 31 active area development projects.  They also have a significant operation in the Irrawaddy Delta in response to recovery efforts after Cyclone Nargis hit in May 2008.  In Bogalay (delta), we were warmly greeted by the WV staff and generously transported by speed boat to visit 6 villages in the delta which had been largely destroyed by Nargis.  We were able to visit some pretty remote villages where WV has been building schools, early child care and development centers and many other relief and development services.  I was impressed with how their projects were designed in partnership with each community.  We met one WV staff member who was continuing to volunteer in supporting communities after her contract was finished!  The WV engineering team also helped us estimate the cost for construction of library buildings!

College Bond Students.  Dottie Guyot and her husband James set up a Pre-Collegiate Program to help Myanmar high school graduates prepare for and earn scholarships for overseas college programs.  I was invited to lead an introduction to microfinance discussion with the current class of 15+ students.  I realized in the midst of comparing microfinance with the typical financial services available to middle class citizens that these students had no personal experience of a functioning financial system.  In 2002, Myanmar’s banking system largely stopped operating.  There are no credit cards.  Loans for individuals and most businesses are unheard of.  Everything is a cash economy.  Besides North Korea, I can’t think of another country which has no banking system!

The Ambassador.  I met with U Nyunt Tin, former ambassador to Canada, France and Indonesia and a retired Myanmar air force officer.  He explained to me that he had participated on the constitutional advisory council assisting with the new Myanmar constitution.  He said it was a fascinating process engaging with a wide variety of people including many leaders from the minority ethnic groups.  While he admitted that the final result was a compromise, he was quite encouraged by the result and broad-based participation.  He is involved in setting up a new microfinance program and has personally committed much of his assets to get this going in a substantial way.  We had a good discussion about the opportunity to present to the central bank some good examples of pro-microfinance regulatory frameworks successfully adopted and implemented by other emerging countries.

Village Girl.  In one Irrawaddy Delta village, I was able to interview a girl of about 9 years old.  She explained how during Nargis, she survived by clinging to her father’s back as the waters rose.  She lost her mother.

Military Attache to US Government.  I met with a retired woman who had worked for a number of years in Washington DC as the office manager for the Burma military attache.  As the main office English speaker, she was the go-between in all of the official and unofficial dealings.  Later she worked for the UN in Myanmar as an expert on disaster relief.  She and her brother, a retired professor, were so excited about our work to rebuild Nargis destroyed libraries that they accompanied us to Bogalay.  I had an interesting discussion with her about life in Rangoon (now Yangon) during the Japanese occupation for 3 years in the second world war.

Rice Farmers.  Over 3 days, we visited 10 separate villages in the Irrawaddy delta which had in common that their libraries were all destroyed by Nargis.  In each village we had the opportunity to meet with the village leadership including the local headman.  In most cases, their primary occupation was rice farming.  We learned that Nargis flooding caused salt to be deposited on their rice paddies “poisoning” the paddy fertility.  Four harvests later they are still having lower yields.  If that wasn’t enough, Nargis killed all of the snakes and owls … the only predator of rats, which survived.  Rats now destroy their crops.  Additionally, small crabs introduced by Nargis flooding also destroy rice yields.  This is very challenging situation.

The Librarian.  I met multiple librarians in Yangon and Bogalay.  At one privately operated community library in Yangon called Dr. Chitmaung Library, we met an impressive librarian and one of her volunteer staff members.  They had very creatively figured out how to make the library operationally financially self-sustaining.  They generated income from annual memberships ($2/year), small fees for English classes and fees for PC usage in their Internet cafe.  They had no budget for books or periodical acquisition so they relied on us and other donors for their collections.  Their PC lab was largely managed by college-aged youth who previously took advantage of library services as children.  This was one impressive operation!

Municipal Librarian.  In Yangon, we visited the largest municipal public library and met the staff.  They excitedly showed us the English language children’s books that they have received from us.  They were now for the first time attracting children to their library.  They showed us their e-library which consisted of a dozen PCs and a library of 100+ CD-ROMs mostly oriented towards college prep.  They still didn’t have any Internet connectivity.  We also saw stacks of a booklet with info on the upcoming election which they told us was very popular.

Library Entrepreneur.  We met the young brother and sister duo, Zar Ni Htet and Khin Kyi Nyoon who had recently established a new college prep library and learning center in downtown Yangon called Knowledge Bank.  They have a vision for helping high school graduates gain the skills necessary to attend college in Myanmar or overseas.  They have created a first class facility including a library of ebooks which members can access via Amazon Kindle or Sony eReader.

IDE.  I met Jared in Bogalay who works with IDE Myanmar.  I first learned of IDE through Paul Polak’s Out of Poverty book.  He was in the delta to interview farmers who were using their products including their small farm optimized treadle pump.  Jared told me that engineers in Yangon had designed a new treadle pump costing $10 lowering the price from their current $25 product.

Business Owner.  I met with a business owner who operates multiple businesses in Myanmar.  He earns most of his revenue related to tourism.  He explained to me how the government limits and duties on importing automobiles required him to pay $100,000 for a car which would cost < $30,000 in the USA.  He also described how he had to pay $1,500+ for his mobile phone number.  He exports a number of artisan products, but he can’t export to the USA due to sanctions … only hurting artisan workers.

MFI CEO.  I met with Fahmid Karim Bhuiya, CEO of Pact Myanmar, the largest microfinance bank in Myanmar called Pact Myanmar.  Fahmid was previously with BRAC in Bangladesh moving in 1997 to Myanmar to start this new MFI.  Over the past year they have added 100K+ clients for a total of 423K client representing about 80% of MFI clients in Myanmar.  They have a loan portfolio of US$25M with average loan size of $76 supported by a staff of 1,700.  They are one of the largest employers in the Irrawaddy delta where they have dramatically expanded since Nargis.  Their major funder is UNDP.  They have reached financial break-even despite 30% inflation.  They have 400+ clients per loan officer which is very efficient especially considering the population density where they are operating.  Impressively, they now offer 9 financial products including health loan, agriculture loan and education loan.  There biggest challenge is the lack of financial regulation in Myanmar which requires them to continue in an ambiguous legal state as a UN project.

Worker productivity really does matter everywhere

April 18th, 2010

worker productivityThe Economist recently reported some interesting observations about why Latin America has fallen so far behind the economic growth in East Asia.

One word — Worker Productivity

The chart on the right shows that in the past 30 years relative to the USA, workers in East Asia have increased their productivity faster and workers in Latin America and the Caribbean have not kept up with the USA and are way behind East Asia.

We’re talking about about 2% lower productivity growth EACH YEAR between Latin America and East Asia!  Anyone who understands compound growth mathematics sees how significant this is.

At its core, productivity growth means getting more output from the same amount of inputs.  And since we’re in a global economy, if others are increasing their productivity and you aren’t … you are going to become less competitive and therefore lose business to other more productivity workers … who will in turn be paid more for their increased productivity.

Much of this is structural:

  • East Asia has chosen to focus on sectors (including manufacturing and agriculture) where productivity gains are typically higher.  Latin America’s workforce is 60% in services.
  • East Asia has more larger, formal economy businesses which benefit from economies of scale.
  • Latin America, maybe surprising to some, has worse infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, etc.)  Example: freight costs from Latin America to USA are more expensive than from Asia to USA

There are exceptions — Chile has consistently had higher productivity growth than the USA and so has Brazil more recently.

With less than 1/3 of Latin America works covered by social-security systems, many governments have created non-contribution social schemes to cover everyone else.  Unfortunately, this discourages people from entering the formal economy.

Read full Economist article

The situation in Myanmar

April 11th, 2010
IMG_1638

Boy fetching water in Yangon, Myanmar

I just returned from 7 days in Myanmar (formerly called Burma).  I’m going to make a couple of posts on my learnings and thoughts.

Part I: The Situation in Myanmar

Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962 after becoming independent from the British Empire in 1948.  Myanmar has made global headlines over the past few years on the following topics:

  • Continued house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi — the face of the democratic resistance and promoted recently by Bono in U2′s concerts
  • The ongoing international sanctions led by USA and EU to “pressure” the military into convert to a democracy
  • The Burmese monks protest in 2007 which was brutally repressed by the military
  • The devastating Cyclone (hurricane) Nargis in May 2008 which killed an estimated 150,000-200,000 people and left many more injured and vast damage
  • The new Burmese constitution being rolled out ahead of elections scheduled for later this year

In many ways Myanmar is a very dysfunctional place due to its military rule and international sanctions.  Here are just a few examples:

  • Cell phone numbers cost $1,500+ and (along with landlines), don’t work reliably
  • Automobiles cost 4-5x what they do in the USA (hence, out of reach for vast majority of 50M+ populace)
  • The country has been in civil war almost constantly since 1948 independence
  • Electricity is only available in major cities.  In Yangon (largest city at 5M+), it only runs 12 hours/day and less everywhere else (except the newly formed capital city in the middle of nowhere)
  • Internet access is severely restricted by censoring (probably worse than China)…and with electricity outages…
  • All non-government operated schools were banned in 1962 eliminating the best schools … and universities were purposely split up after 1990 dishonored elections
  • Essentially no banking system (for anyone) after 2002 foreign banks were pushed out and key domestic banks failed … so everything is a cash economy … literally!

Some of the bright spots:

  • High literacy rate — 90%+ … Burmese love to read!
  • Private schools, while still not authorized, are now tolerated and provide an option (for people with money)
  • Myanmar has vast natural resources – including timber, gems and oil/gas – and was once the world’s largest rice exporter
  • Private investment has been increasing in the past few years — both domestic and foreign
  • The currency is now pretty stable … with only 30% inflation
  • The Burmese people (and many other ethnic groups) are hard-working and English (the global business language) is the 2nd most used language
  • Elections are coming!  While the military has structured the new constitution so that they can continue to control, these are the first elections in 20 years and the first potentially elected government since 1962.

In the next post, I’ll share about the amazing range of interesting people I met with — including a former ambassador, some of the most interesting domestic and international NGOs at work in Myanmar, the head of the largest microfinance institution, government officials, a major local investor, the retired head national librarian, students who are preparing for overseas college, village leaders, village farmers and teachers, business people, librarians, children in villages and more.  Read more…

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