Archive for February, 2008

A Billion Bootstraps book review

February 20th, 2008

billionbootstrapsA Billion Bootstraps: Microcredit, Barefoot Banking, and the Business Solution for Ending Poverty

by Phil Smith and Eric Thurman

I think this the best book that I’ve read so far which provides an introduction to microcredit which is designed for a non-industry expert and, more specifically, for someone who is looking to get involved in microfinance.

It is genuinely co-authored with each author writing alternating chapters. Eric Thurman is the industry expert having previously led two leading multi-country microfinance organizations, Opportunity International and HOPE International plus Geneva Global, an interesting group which advises/supports philanthropists in international giving strategies. Phil Smith is a successful oil industry entrepreneur who tells his story about learning about microfinance and how and why he is now such a passionate investor.

A couple of highlights from my reading:

  • They argue that we should expect higher returns on our philanthropic $, not less than our financial investment returns. They note how people invest philanthropic $ too much with their hearts rather than their minds and that’s why there is such little impact usually made by those investments. Accountability to quantified results is needed in philanthropy.
  • Their rule of thumb is the capital required to help a family out of poverty through microcredit is approximately the level of average annual income per capita of the borrower’s country (GNI per capita).
  • Microcredit has dramatically lower cost-per-life (CPL) impacted “return” than any other kind of investment they could find. They estimate that this could be as little as 1% of per capita GNI based on 20 loans cycles (1 every 6 months for 10 years) and an average family size of 5. Even if you conservatively discount the impact, it likely not more than 10% of per capita GNI.
  • In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the average income is $120, so the CPL would be 1-10% of that or $1.20 to $12. Wow! It is an order of magnitude (10x) more expensive in middle income countries (e.g. Eastern Europe) and two orders of magnitude (100x) more expensive in developed countries. So, if you are looking for maximizing your CPL…low income countries are the best investment by far.
  • They present the concept of “microcredit plus”. They prefer the term “microcredit” over “microfinance” as they see the credit piece as the driver and everything else that is added on is part of the “plus”. They are strong supporters of the “plus” services that can accompany and complement microcredit … but leave that up to you to decide what matters to you.
  • They provide a list of some of the major international microfinance organizations along with some very good advice of how you need to do your own due diligence to find out what their true overhead is. Eric, the industry expert, says it is not unusual to be 50% or more!
  • They provide a list of ways you can invest/participate in microcredit. This is a good summary of your general options … although you’ll still need to do a bunch of homework.

What I think is missing from the book:

  • There continues to be too much focus on telling the stories of how the exceptionally rich are doing philanthropy … the Gates, Buffetts, Omidyars, etc. which while maybe inspirational is frankly pretty irrelevant to the rest of us. Then there’s the only very rich examples of ex-bankers, etc. We need people who are telling more stories of ordinary individuals like the rest of us making a difference.
  • This book is very focused on supporting the impact of microfinance through donations even though they extensively use the “investment” language to describe your donations strategy. They do note that some people are making loans to provide capital for microfinance, but this is more of a side note. I think that there needs to be more written about helping people take a more holistic approach to “investing” in social impact which includes both philanthropy (donations/volunteering) and investing with the opportunity for capital return (and possibly a profit.)

Is the world getting better?

February 13th, 2008

Most people perceive that the world is a pretty rotten place and getting more rotten. We’ve got more wars/violence, more inequity, Africa getting poorer, climate change, etc.

The Economist recently published an article sharing statistics about how the world is doing looking at three categories: the underlying social condition in poor countries, poverty alleviation over the past decade and the incidence of wars and political violence. The net is that while there definitely are some rotten things going on, the net is that over all the world is a much better place for most people than it was a decade ago. Here are a few of items from the article (please read the article for more details as there are a lot!):

  • 25 years ago in China, over 600M people were living on < $1/day. Today this number is 180M … meaning 420M+ people are now above this level.
  • Between 1999 and 2004, 135M people worldwide rose from < $1/day to above this level. This is more people, more quickly than at any other time in history.
  • In South Asia, the number of people without clean water has halved since 1990.
  • In 1975, 75% of people aged 15-25 were literate. Now the rate is almost 90%.
  • In 1970, the fertility rate in East Asia/Pacific was 5.4 and now is 2.1 In South Asia, it was 60 and now is 3.1. Overall, global fertility has fallen from 4.8 to 2.6 in 25 years. Africa has all but one of the countries with fertility rates above 5.0.
  • A World Bank study noted that every 1% increase in national income her person in an emerging country translated in 1.3% fall in extreme poverty.
  • In 2007, the global economy entered its fifth year of over 4% growth — the longest period of expansion since the 1970′s. Also, trade grew 9% despite all of the challenges.
  • Almost half of all humans lives in countries with growth of more than 7% per year (which doubles the economy every decade).
  • Inequality has risen in both rich and poor countries overall, but there are examples where this is not true questioning whether globalization is the main culprit of inequality. The Economist argues that lack of [quality] education is likely the biggest culprit.
  • In 1990, more than 25% of people in developing countries lived on < $1/day. At current rates, this will be 10% by 2015.
  • Income is not the only way to quantify improvement for the poor. Monetary measures understate the real gains from things such as lower child mortality, safer water, literacy and other social achievements.
  • A study shows that the number of conflicts (international and civil) fell from over 50 at the start of the 1990′s to just over 30 in 2005. The number of international wars peaked in the 1970′s and have been falling ever since. The death toll in battle fell from over 200,000 a year in the mid-1990′s to below 20,000 in the mid-2000′s. [The WHO has higher numbers.]
  • The number of incidents of terrorism has increased since 2001 although the number is still very small.

I am not trying to say our efforts to accelerate the end of poverty should be reduced, but simply to notice and celebrate where progress has been made.

Were many of these data points a surprise to anyone else besides me?

Free malaria bed nets

February 10th, 2008

A new survey by the World Health Organization on the impact of widespread distribution of free bed nets combined with anti-malarial medicines notes some very positive results. Here are some excerpts and summaries:

In Ethiopia, deaths of children from malaria dropped more than 50 percent. In Rwanda, they dropped more than 60 percent in only two months.

Zambia had only about a 33 percent drop in overall deaths because nets ran short and many districts ran out of medicine. But those areas without such problems had 50 to 60 percent reductions.

“We saw a very drastic impact,” said Dr. Arata Kochi, chief of malaria for the W.H.O., “If this is done everywhere, we can reduce the disease burden 80 to 85 percent in most African countries within five years”

He estimates this 5-year campaign would cost about $10 billion and would reduce the death rate due to malaria to thousands per year rather than millions per year who now die.

Reporting on this report in The Economist and New York Times.

Social business model

February 1st, 2008

There is a growing interest in a new kind of business that is now being referred to as a “social business” or “social enterprise” (I am going to use the former terminology.) I’d like to explain and unpackage this idea a bit and contrast different definitions/perspectives.

The key difference between a social business and a traditional business is that a social business explicitly sets expectations with investors (usually in its bylaws) that it will simultaneously pursue two objectives — (1) specific positive social impacts/”returns”; and (2) financial returns. Generally, social businesses “warn” investors that the financial returns may be negatively impacted by the social objectives and therefore they seek investors who understand and support these dual objectives when they make their investment. By definition a business must be ultimately self-sustaining … that is, generate a profit/surplus which can allow the organization to continue without indefinite infusions of investor capital. I say “ultimately” because many businesses have periods of operating losses as they startup or pursue periods of forward investing with the goal of being more sustainable long-term.

So far so good. Then the definitions of social businesses by different people start to diverge.

Non-Profits and Earned Income. There are a few people which consider non-profit organizations which have income generating activities to qualify as social businesses, but most agree that while these may be good activities they are not in themselves social businesses as they continue to rely on donor income to be sustained. I think it is increasingly important for the viability of most non-profits to have a diversity of income sources which include earned income.

Self-Sustaining Non-Profits. There are a number of institutions which have explicit missions to “do good” and have sufficient resources/income to be self-sustaining. These include private foundations, endowments (e.g. universities) and, more recently, operating businesses organized in a trust-type format. An example of the latter are a number of successful microfinance banks which generate profits, often are subject to tax, but are run by trustees (as there are no shareholders) who by law cannot have a personal benefit from the organization. Generally, the foundations and endowments are not considered social businesses even though some of them do have some operational components. For true operating businesses run inside non-share capital structures, these are increasingly viewed as social businesses even though they may face future limitations due to their inability to accept investor equity capital.

Corporate Philanthropy. Many companies have initiatives to “do good.” Some organizations commit a specific [small] % of corporate profits to these initiatives. Examples of companies which have institutionalized this are Ben & Jerry’s, Google (1% of equity, 1%profits) and RealNetworks (5% of profits). These come under what’s known in the business world as the “corporate social responsibility” category. Generally, these initiatives are separate and unrelated to the company’s business. There is much debate about whether these are essentially public relations efforts vs. serious attempts to make a meaningful/optimized social impact. See my post on Bill Gates on Creative Capitalism. Most people agree that simply having some “do good” social programs do not make the business a social business.

Yunus Definition of Social Business. In Muhammad Yunus’ latest book, he argues for a much narrower view of a social business. He proposes that only two types of businesses are true social businesses: (i) businesses owned primarily/exclusively by the poor; and (ii) businesses where investors are limited to only receive back their invested capital and no more. He says that type (i) provide social impact through the returns they provide to the poor through shareholding and don’t necessarily need to have a social mission (although having one would make them an even better social business.) For type (ii), he argues that if the investors have any potential for return above their investment that this will always trump any social objectives.

“Hybrid” Social Business. Then there’s a form of social business which has clear objectives for both social impact and financial return. One of the most prominent examples are the many “for-profit” microfinance businesses sprouting up around the globe. These businesses explicitly operate as businesses (with investor capital) and focus on providing valuable products and services to the poor (if not the poorest) citizens/communities. Some argue that these are simply “regular” businesses which happen to focus on a certain market segment … the poor. In some cases, businesses which focus on the poor/vulnerable are exploitive … e.g. moneylenders and their re-branded breathern, pay day loan providers. While there definitely are exploitive business models, there are a growing number of examples of businesses which genuinely seek a material positive social impact. [I will cover some controversial examples of highly profitable microfinance banks in a separate posting.] There are a growing number of social investors who are seeking out quality social businesses of this nature … a good example is Good Capital.

[There are some businesses which have a more indirect impact on a population ... example is mobile telcom operators which appear to increase GDP in emerging markets as subscriber penetration increases ... Merrill Lynch report 0.59% increase in GDP for every 10% increase in mobile penetration ... but generally these are not seen as social businesses.]

Why I Like the “Hybrid” Social Business Model

While I have a lot of respect for one of my current day heroes, Muhammad Yunus, I disagree with his narrow view of a social business because I think it is too limiting on the potential for social impact through the social business construct. Here are a few of my thoughts:

  • Investor expectations do matter. If you select investors who are incompatible with your objectives (e.g. they don’t value your social impacts), you’re going to have a challenge keeping focused on your social objectives. But, this is true for any business … you need to find the right investors and set expectations very clearly.
  • Investors take a portfolio approach. Almost all investors seek to have some diversity in their investment portfolio in order to mitigate risk. If I want to be a social business investor, I’m going to want to invest in multiple social businesses realizing that returns/results will vary. So, if I invest in 10 social businesses and 5 fail (no return, not unusual), 3 have modest returns and 2 have strong returns, I have less risk. I also potentially receive my capital back plus a return (both financial and social.) This means that the successful social businesses are overcompensating me in return (financial and social) and the unsuccessful social businesses are undercompensating me. If I agreed to only received my invested capital back with no financial upside, then I would be losing 50% of my invested capital in this scenario and this should be structured a charitable donation.
  • Social entrepreneurs may serially fail. As noted above, it is not uncommon for 50% of businesses (any type of business) to fail. Let’s say we have a very eager social entrepreneurs who starts 5 social business which fail and it’s only her 6th social business which succeeds. Let’s say that she creates huge personal indebtedness in starting the all of these businesses. Why shouldn’t she be able to have a reasonable financial return on the 6th business in order to compensate her for the risk and expense she took in developing all of these businesses? Aren’t we going to dissuade social entrepreneurs from the necessary risk-taking if they have no financial upside from their personal investment?
  • Accessing investment capital. While there is a considerable amount of money in foundations, donor advised funds and other like pools, these funds represent a very small amount of the overall investment capital pool. Most people need/expect to earn a financial return if they are going to commit monies from [their much larger] investment capital “pocket” (vs. their much smaller philanthropic pocket.) So, if you want to attract this capital, you need to offer a financial return even if it is potentially somewhat lowered due to the additional social impact return objective.

Since I believe that social businesses should not be artificially limited in their ability to provide financial returns to investors and staff, I am going to use the term “social business” (with the “hybrid” adjective) going forward to refer to businesses which have an explicit and material social objective in their DNA.

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